Every few years, changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean affect weather across the globe. These variations are part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between two main phases: El Niño, when ocean waters are warmer than usual, and La Niña, when they are cooler.
This year, forecasters confirm that La Niña conditions have returned, shaping the outlook for the upcoming winter 2025–2026. While El Niño often brings mild and wet winters to some regions, La Niña typically has the opposite effect – resulting in colder temperatures in northern areas and drier conditions farther south.
What Is La Niña?
La Niña, meaning "The Little Girl" in Spanish, develops when unusually strong trade winds push warm surface water westward across the Pacific. This allows colder water to rise along South America's coast, cooling a large stretch of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This process changes air pressure and circulation patterns across the tropics, which in turn influences global wind systems and jet streams. Although it begins in the Pacific, La Niña's reach extends worldwide, affecting rainfall, temperature, and storm patterns across many regions.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Map for November 2025 (meteoblue.com). The map shows how much the ocean's temperature at the surface differs from its long-term average. Areas with warmer-than-average temperatures are coloured in shades of yellow and bright orange, while cooler-than-average areas are depicted in blue. This map features forecasted La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean for November 2025.
Global and regional impacts
La Niña affects atmospheric circulation, shifting storm trajectories and modifying temperature contrasts. In North America, it often brings colder, snowier winters to Canada and the northern United States, while the southern states tend to experience warmer and drier conditions.
In Europe, the connection is less direct but still significant. Depending on the position of the North Atlantic jet stream, La Niña can bring colder air masses in winter to northern and central Europe, while southern Europe often sees milder and more stable weather.
Across Asia and Oceania, La Niña enhances rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding in Indonesia and northern Australia. Meanwhile, South America often experiences wetter conditions in the north and drier weather in the south. These regional contrasts show how a single oceanic event can influence climates on multiple continents.
What to expect in the 2025–2026 winter
According to the latest forecasts, La Niña is expected to persist through the coming winter and gradually weaken by spring 2026. For Europe, this could mean a season of contrasts – shifting between cold, stormy episodes and calmer, milder phases, depending on how the jet stream evolves. Northern and central areas are more likely to experience cold outbreaks, while southern Europe may remain comparatively dry and mild.
In North America, a typical La Niña pattern is expected, with active storm tracks across the north and more stable, dry weather farther south. Parts of Asia and the western Pacific are likely to remain wetter than average, continuing the pattern observed during recent La Niña events.
La Niña brings contrasting weather: snowy conditions up north and wetter ones across the western Pacific.
La Niña in a warming climate
Although La Niña is a natural part of the climate system, scientists are studying how climate change might be influencing its strength and frequency. Some evidence suggests that as global temperatures rise, La Niña events could become more intense or more frequent, potentially leading to stronger extremes such as floods, droughts, and cold spells.
While advances in climate science and forecasting have greatly improved our ability to anticipate events like La Niña, many of the underlying processes within the ocean-atmosphere system remain highly complex. Continued research and observation are essential to refine our understanding, but each new discovery brings us closer to more accurate predictions and better preparedness for the future.
Afterword: Explore the meteoblue Seasonal Forecast section to view Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Depth Anomalies for the coming months, or the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map showing the ongoing La Niña in the Pacific. These maps show deviations of predicted monthly means from long-term reference periods, based on various models, including the meteoblue SA-ENSEMBLE. While seasonal forecasts come with higher uncertainty, they remain valuable for long-term planning in sectors such as agriculture.
Snow Depth Anomaly Map for February 2026 (meteoblue.com). The map shows how forecasted snow depth differs from the long-term average (the "climatological norm") for a given period.
