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>40 years of hourly weather data with history+

Access historical weather information for Wilmington Manor with history+. Available worldwide and independent from weather stations. Download consistent and gap-free hourly data for Wilmington Manor as CSV. You can test data access for Basel freely.

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The risk assessment report is limited to the location of Basel for evaluation.
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Locations

Your activated locations are listed here. You can switch to another location by clicking on the name, or compare data with the current location by checking the box.

Crops

Season start month

Season end month

Settings

Risk

Reference period first year

Reference period last year

Reference period 2 start year

Reference period 2 end year

Sample

Crop climate risk analysis

Crop weather risk prediction

The crop climate risk analysis diagram shows the drought, heat, or frost risk for a selected crop at a selected location as calculated from a selected period from 1985 to today.

Note: This diagram assumes the viewer is familiar with the concept of growing degree days and crop growth stages.

The vertical coloured strips in the background indicate the growing stages of the selected crop. The growth stage names (phenologic development stages) on the colour bar are positioned at the end of each growing stage (right).

The crop weather risk prediction diagram indicates the risk to a selected crop based on drought, heat, or frost in the current season at a selected location, based on a 7-day and a seasonal forecast.

Note: This diagram assumes the viewer is familiar with the concept of growing degree days and crop growth stages.

The colour bar below the diagram indicates the selected crop’s growth stages. The growth stage names (phenologic development stages) on the colour bar below the diagram are positioned at the end of each growth stage.

The horizontal axis shows cumulated growing degree days (GDD), starting from a typical planting date for the selected crop. The planting date can be adjusted via “Season start month” above the diagram and “Planting day” on the Settings panel. Calendar dates can be read off individual data points by moving the mouse over them.

The default base and limit temperatures for the GDD calculation are given by the selected crop.

Crop growth stages

Season start month: The month in which the selected crop is typically planted in Europe. Adjust the season start month as needed. In Settings (top right) you can also specify the day within the season start month to indicate the planting date.

Season end month: The month in which the selected crop is typically harvested in Europe. Adjust the season end month as needed.

Reference period first year: The calculated risk is based on the weather observed in the reference period. You can adjust the first year between 1985 and last year.

Reference period last year: The calculated risk is based on the weather observed in the reference period. You can adjust the last year between 1986 and last year.

Reference period 2 start year: The average value of the weather variable driving the risk during the reference period 2. You can adjust the first year between 1985 and last year.

Reference period 2 end year: The average value of the weather variable driving the risk during the reference period 2. You can adjust the last year between 1986 and last year.


Note: For locations in the southern hemisphere season start and end dates are shifted by six months.

The crop’s growth stages are derived from cumulated growing degree days as found in literature and listed in the table below. How much a weather event impacts a crop depends on the crop’s growing stage, shown in the table below as well. Impact values are derived from literature and expressed as values between 0.0 and 1.0, with low values meaning low impact.

Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 27 34 31 0.2 1.0 0.1
Flowering 166 195 181 0.8 0.9 0.3
First square 236 264 250 0.8 0.9 0.4
First flower 430 472 451 0.8 0.8 0.4
Open boll 472 528 500 0.3 0.7 0.2
Harvest 1222 1445 1334 0.1 0.5 0.1
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence n\a n\a 111 0.3 1.0 0.7
6 collars n\a n\a 264 0.9 0.9 0.8
12 collars n\a n\a 483 0.9 0.9 0.9
Last tassel n\a n\a 630 0.2 0.9 0.8
Silking n\a n\a 778 0.3 0.7 0.6
Harvest n\a n\a 1500 0.7 0.7 0.2
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 57.1 89.4 74 0.3 1.0 0.2
50% flowering 677.9 899.5 789 0.5 0.9 0.5
100% flowering 746.3 960.5 854 0.7 0.7 0.6
Pod formation 854.5 1125.0 990 1.0 0.5 0.4
Maturity 1453.8 1913.2 1684 0.9 0.3 0.2
Harvest 1694.0 2058.0 1876 0.5 0.1 0.1
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 109.0 145.0 127 0.3 0.7 0.8
Leafing 145.0 184.0 165 0.5 0.8 0.7
Tillering 308.0 360.0 334 0.7 0.8 0.6
Stem elongation 489.0 555.0 522 0.9 0.9 0.5
Anthesis 738.0 936.0 837 1.0 1.0 0.5
Seed fill 927.0 1145.0 1036 0.9 0.8 0.5
Dough 1193.0 1438.0 1316 0.7 0.5 0.4
Maturity 1269.0 1522.0 1396 0.4 0.5 0.2
Harvest n\a n\a 1745 0.3 0.3 0.1
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence n\a n\a 50 0.8 0.1 0.9
Leafing n\a n\a 230 0.9 0.0 1.0
Tillering n\a n\a 334 0.9 0.0 1.0
Stem elongation n\a n\a 1850 0.5 0.2 0.9
Anthesis n\a n\a 2200 0.4 0.6 0.8
Seed fill n\a n\a 2340 0.3 0.7 0.7
Maturity n\a n\a 2570 0.2 0.8 0.7
Harvest n\a n\a 2750 0.1 0.8 0.7
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 125.0 160.0 143 0.3 0.9 0.7
Leafing 169.0 208.0 189 0.6 0.9 0.6
Tillering 369.0 421.0 395 0.7 0.8 0.5
Stem elongation 592.0 659.0 626 0.95 0.1 0.7
Anthesis 807.0 901.0 854 0.95 0.5 0.9
Seed fill 1068.0 1174.0 1121 0.9 0.7 0.8
Dough 1434.0 1556.0 1495 0.7 0.8 0.7
Maturity 1538.0 1665.0 1602 0.7 0.9 0.5
Harvest n\a n\a 1825 0.4 0.7 0.1
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 125.0 160.0 143 0.3 0.9 0.5
Leafing 169.0 208.0 189 0.6 0.9 0.6
Tillering 369.0 421.0 395 0.7 0.8 0.7
Stem elongation 592.0 659.0 626 1.0 0.1 1.0
Anthesis 807.0 901.0 854 1.0 0.5 1.0
Seed fill 1068.0 1174.0 1121 0.9 0.7 1.0
Dough 1434.0 1556.0 1495 0.7 0.8 0.6
Maturity n\a n\a 1600 0.7 0.9 0.3
Harvest n\a n\a 1700 0.4 0.7 0.1
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 109.7 128.8 120 0.5 0.1 0.9
Bud visible 571.6 640.8 607 0.7 0.5 0.9
Immature bud 869.1 1044.8 957 0.8 0.6 0.8
First flowering 1044.8 1335.6 1191 1.0 0.7 0.7
50% flowering 1158.9 1397.3 1279 0.9 0.8 0.6
Last flowering 1357.3 1677.2 1518 0.9 0.9 0.5
Maturity 2187.0 2292.2 2240 0.6 0.7 0.3
Harvest n\a n\a 2310 0.2 0.3 0.2
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Bud break 40 75 58 1.0 1.0 0.8
Flowering 333 409 371 1.0 0.8 0.7
Veraison 965 1181 1073 0.7 0.6 0.6
Maturity 1251 1940 1596 0.5 0.8 0.5
Harvest 1390 2220 1805 0.2 1.0 0.4
Stage GDD minimum GDD maximum GDD average Drought impact Frost impact Heat impact
Emergence 150.0 200.0 175 0.3 0.7 0.9
Flowering n\a n\a 700 1.0 1.0 0.8
Maturity n\a n\a 1350 0.5 0.4 0.7
Harvest n\a n\a 1745 0.3 0.2 0.6

The vertical axis is the likelihood of the selected event (drought, frost, heat) occurring. The likelihood is based on historical statistics for the selected reference period.

By default, events are defined as follows: during a drought event available soil water falls below 3mm, during a frost event the temperature falls below 0 °C for 3 hrs or more, and during a heat event the temperature rises above 30 °C for 3 hrs or more. These parameters can be adjusted on the Settings panel.

Tip: Choose a reference period at least 5 years long to obtain a useful diagram.

Depending on whether looking at drought, frost, or heat risk, the blue curve shows an estimate of available soil water, daily minimum temperature, or daily maximum temperature, respectively, based on the weather up to the current date. The magenta curve shows a 7-day forecast, and the tan curves show various seasonal forecasts published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and various national weather services.

Tip: You can switch curves on and off by clicking in the legend below the diagram.

Note: You won`t see part or all of the forecast curves if the current date is outside the growth season of the chosen crop.

The black and grey curves show the weather’s (average) behaviour in reference periods that you can define. In addition, the grey area covers two standard deviations of the past 35 years’ mean value of the selected weather variable.

Tip: Choose one past year with high yields and one with low yields as reference periods. This allows you to compare the current year with those. For crops planted in one year and harvested in the next, specify the harvest year.

The vertical axis is the value of the weather variable that drives the selected event: available soil water for drought events, daily maximum temperature for heat events, and daily minimum temperature for frost events. Variable values are categorized in five classes, one beyond the event threshold value, and four before the event threshold value. Each class is associated with a defined likelihood between 0.0 and 1.0 such that the likelihood value increases as the threshold is approached and is set to 1.0 once the threshold value is passed.

Note: This simple model of likelihood can be further improved but even in its present form allows the diagram to (1) highlight when the threshold values are passed and (2) express risk as the product of likelihood of an event and its impact in each crop growth stage.

Dot colours indicate the level of risk to the crop according to the colour scale on the right. The risk level is calculated as the product of likelihood of a drought, frost, or heat event occurring and its impact on the crop.

Tip: For additional detail see this white paper on crop risk.

The level of risk due to drought, heat, or frost to the crop in its various growth stages is the product of likelihood and impact, represented graphically by the diagram’s background colours.

Tip: For additional detail see this white paper on crop risk.

Risk level
Very High
High
Moderate
Low
Very Low

Settings

Planting day (calendar day)


GDD Calculation

Base T (°C) (default: 15)

Base T (°C) (default: 10)

Base T (°C) (default: 10)

Base T (°C) (default: 4)

Base T (°C) (default: 2)

Base T (°C) (default: 4)

Base T (°C) (default: 0)

Base T (°C) (default: 4)

Base T (°C) (default: 10)

Base T (°C) (default: 7)

Limit T (°C) (default: 40)

Limit T (°C) (default: 35)

Limit T (°C) (default: 30)

Limit T (°C) (default: 35)

Limit T (°C) (default: 33)

Limit T (°C) (default: 37)

Limit T (°C) (default: 25)

Limit T (°C) (default: 36)

Limit T (°C) (default: 35)

Limit T (°C) (default: 27)


Drought risk

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Soil capacity (mm) (default: 100)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)

Drought threshold (default: 3)


Frost risk

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost threshold (default: 0)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)

Frost duration (hours) (default: 3)


Heat risk

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat threshold (default: 30)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

Heat duration (hours) (default: 3)

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