Risk Assessment

• Cold and warm events: Probability of temperatures below or above a certain temperature threshold for a given time. Can be used to evaluate frost (or heat) risks. The first diagram shows the likelihood of the event in a day or in a week. You can approximate your personal tolerable risk with the second diagram. If your tolerable risk for a frost event is 20%, you should schedule sowing in late April for example. If you can accept 50% frost likelihood in favour of earlier sowing, the second week of March may be more suitable. The third diagram shows the occurrences of warm and cold events since 1986 for each year.
• Precipitation: This diagram evaluates precipitation amounts above a certain threshold in a week. As with cold and warm events, you can estimate heavy precipitation events and schedule activities accordingly.

• Water capacity: Estimated probability of remaining soil water amount. Select the maximum amount of soil water capacity depending on your soil and crop type. Higher soil water capacities are better indicators for extremely dry seasons. Yellow, orange and red bars indicate almost depleted soil water.
• Cloud cover: Cloud free hours per day. The first diagram shows the probabilistic distribution of cloud cover below a certain threshold. P80 and P20 indicate the second best and second worst out of ten events: so there is an 60% likelihood of 5-7 hours of cloud cover below 15% in Basel in early October for a given day. The statistically most cloud-free days would occur in Basel during mid August. The lower diagrams shows the actual occurrence of cloud free hours since 1986.
• Wind speed and wind gust: The wind risk assessments analyse wind speed and gust wind events above a certain threshold. This helps to investigate wind events based on historical data since 1986.

The risk assessments are based on the low-resolution model (spatial resolution of 30km), which is available since 1984.