The People Indoor Bias represents the overall prediction of the behaviour of people in terms of their tendency to remain indoors (red) or outdoors (green). As most COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infections occur indoors, the People Indoor Bias contributes to explaining infection rates on regional to global scale.
The People Indoor Bias Map graphically illustrates the assumption that certain meteorological conditions generally result in people staying mainly in confined indoor spaces, while other meteorological conditions result in people spending time predominantly outside. The People Indoor Bias can explain 50% - 80% of people’s behaviour of being indoors or outdoors. This has been demonstrated in a study correlating weather data with Google parks data from 5 large cities in 2 climate zones over 8 months of 2020, as illustrated below:
Most cases of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)'s transmission occur indoors. In unpleasant weather (orange or red), people tend to gather and stay mostly indoors, where the air circulation is limited, and thus the overall COVID-19 infection rates increase. On the other hand, if the weather is moderate or fair (green), people tend to spend their free time outside where the infection risk is lower, leading to lower infection rates. Thereby, the People Indoor Bias provides an additional source of data for estimating future COVID-19 infection risk on large scales. Note that unlike other maps by meteoblue, the purpose of the People Indoor Bias presentation is not to help individual users make decisions about their daily life. It explains people’s behaviour in relation to the weather and its potential influence on COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection risk.
Practically, a high People Indoor Bias indicates that most people in an area are likely to remain indoors for most of the day, and therefore the probability of meeting with and being close to other people indoors will increase. Conversely, a low People Indoor Bias indicates that people in an area are likely to spend most of their leisure time outdoors, and therefore the probability of meeting with and being close to other people will decrease. However, the People Indoor Bias cannot and does not explain differences in culture (urban vs. rural), city architecture (large malls vs. small pedestrian areas), or behaviour in different groups (families, sports teams, workforce). It just represents an inclination of the people behaviour towards more indoor or outdoor permanence.
The People Indoor Bias has been currently validated for temperate continental and maritime climate. We are expanding the validation to other climate zones and may adjust the Bias in the future to better fit other climate zones as well.
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The People Indoor Bias describes the behaviour of sizeable groups of people, and therefore it is not a personal planning tool to avoid COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. meteoblue therefore cannot be held responsible in any way for any individual’s contracting COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2).