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Uporediti našu prognozu sa izmerenim podacima za nekoliko prethodnih dana sa kratkoročnom proverom za Естиз Парк.

Comparison of weather models for Естиз Парк

The blue lines correspond to the forecasts computed by different high-resolution weather models. Also shown are the members of a traditional ensemble prediction, where the same weather model (GFS) is run several times with slightly different initial conditions, to reflect uncertainties in the observations required to run a forecast model. The GFS members have been downscaled and bias corrected to match local weather conditions, data from the high-resolution models is untouched.

  • In the top graph, the temperature forecast for Естиз Парк is shown using light blue for different high-resolution models and red for the GFS ensemble members. The black line represents the mean of all forecasts and the dashed line the meteoblue consensus forecast as shown in our weather forecasts.
  • The 2nd graph shows the accumulated precipitation forecast, that is the total amount that falls from today up to the date shown on the time axis. Purple colour is used to indicate times where precipitation is falling.
  • The 3rd graph is forecast cloud cover in percent using light blue for the high-resolution weather models and green for the GFS ensemble members.
  • The 4th graph indicates the wind forecast as computed by high resolution models (light blue) and by the ensemble prediction (green). Also shown is the daily wind direction summary in form of a wind rose. Larger segments indicate that this wind direction is more likely and more frequent over the day than directions having smaller segments. If you have many segments of all about equal size than the forecast of wind direction is very uncertain. If there are predominantly two opposing directions this often indicates a thermal wind circulation where wind blows from a different direction during the day than at night.

Why do we show a traditional ensemble forecast and a multi model forecast at the same time?

A traditional ensemble (e.g. GFS) computed with the same forecast model often underestimates the uncertainties in the weather for the first 3 to 5 days thus overestimating the confidence in the forecast. Furthermore, the traditional ensemble is run at much lower resolution, thus neglecting some of the local weather phenomenon, which can be seen in high resolution models. It is very important to note, that all members of a traditional ensemble have the same likelihood of being true (there is no way to tell in advance which one will be better). This contrasts with the high-resolution models, where some deliver better forecasts than others depending on the location and weather conditions.


Meteorološki modeli

Meteorološki modeli simuliraju stvarne procese. Meteorološki model deli svet ili oblast na manje "mrežne-ćelije". Svaka ćelija je od oko 4km pa do 40km široka i od 100m pa do 2km visoka. Naši modeli sadrže 60 atmosferskih slojeva i dosežu duboko do stratosfere na 10-25 hPa (60km nadmorske visine). Vreme je simulirano pomoću rešavanja kompleksnih matematičkih jednačina između svih mrežnih ćelija svake sekunde i parametri kao što su temperatura, brzina vetra ili oblačnost se čuvaju svaki sat.

meteoblue sarađuje sa velikim brojem meteoroloških modela i integriše slobodne podatke iz više izvora. Svi meteoblue modeli su izračunati dva puta na dan na našem namenskom superkompjuteru.

Model Oblast Rezolucija Poslednje ažuriranje Izvor

NEMS model familija: Poboljšani NMM naslednik (u funkcije od 2013). NEMS je višestruki model (korišćen globalno i lokalno) koji značajno poboljšava prognozu razvoja oblačnosti i padavina.

NEMS4 Centralna Evropa 4 km 72 h 00.30 MST meteoblue
NEMS12 Evropa 12 km 180 h 01.06 MST meteoblue
NEMS-8 Centralna Amerika 12 km 180 h 03.12 MST meteoblue
NEMS12 Indija 12 km 180 h 02.12 MST meteoblue
NEMS10 Južna Amerika 10 km 180 h 04.01 MST meteoblue
NEMS10 South Africa 10 km 180 h 02.02 MST meteoblue
NEMS8 Novi Zeland 8 km 180 h 00.48 MST meteoblue
NEMS8 Japan East Asia 8 km 180 h 00.35 MST meteoblue
NEMS30 Global 30 km 180 h 10.35 MST meteoblue
NEMS2-30 Global 30 km 168 h 05.14 MST meteoblue

NMM model familija: prvi meteorološki model meteoblue ( u funkciji od 2007). NMM je regionalni meteorološki model koji je usavršen za složen teren.

NMM4 Centralna Evropa 4 km 72 h 10.33 MST meteoblue
NMM12 Evropa 12 km 180 h 12.15 MST meteoblue
NMM18 Južna Amerika 18 km 180 h 02.22 MST meteoblue
NMM18 South Africa 18 km 180 h 00.32 MST meteoblue
NMM18 Jugoistočna Azija 18 km 180 h 01.09 MST meteoblue

Domeni trećih lica: Kao što možete videti na drugim web stranicama

GFS22 Global 22 km 180 h (@ 3 h) 09.32 MST NOAA NCEP
GFS40 Global 40 km 180 h (@ 3 h) 09.44 MST NOAA NCEP
GFSENS05 Global 40 km 336 h (@ 6 h) 00.53 MST NOAA NCEP
NAM5 Severna Amerika 5 km 48 h 10.17 MST NOAA NCEP
NAM12 Severna Amerika 12 km 84 h (@ 3 h) 07.51 MST NOAA NCEP
ICON7 Evropa 7 km 120 h (@ 3 h) 09.13 MST Deutscher Wetterdienst
ICON13 Global 13 km 180 h (@ 3 h) 10.43 MST Deutscher Wetterdienst
COSMO2 Nemačka 2.5 km 27 h 09.31 MST Deutscher Wetterdienst
GEM25 Global 25 km 168 h (@ 3 h) 11.07 MST Environment Canada
AROME2 Francuska 2 km 36 h 09.53 MST METEO FRANCE
ARPEGE11 Evropa 11 km 96 h 11.27 MST METEO FRANCE
ARPEGE40 Global 40 km 96 h (@ 3 h) 10.08 MST METEO FRANCE
HIRLAM11 Evropa 11 km 48 h 10.30 MST KNMI

Pokrivenost širom sveta

meteoblue domain overview meteoblue meteorološki modeli pokrivaju većinu naseljenih mesta u visokoj rezoluciji (3-10km) i širom sveta u ograničenoj rezoluciji (30km). Mapa na strani prikazuje NMM modele kao crvene, a NEMS modele kao crne kutije. Za pojedinačnu prognozu, brojni meteorološki modeli, statističke analize, merenja, radarska i satelitska telemetrija se uzimaju u obzir i kombinuju se da proizvedu najverovatniju vremensku prognozu za bilo koju lokaciju na Zemlji.