ESFSJU A mid to upper level trough is expected to move across Hispaniola on Sunday, reaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, the trough will be developing a closed low pressure system in the mid and upper level of the atmosphere, with a well defined trough (or possibly a low) developing at the surface. As a result, favorable conditions for periods of heavy rain are anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. The first round of showers is expected to reach the region Sunday night into early Monday. On Monday morning, showers and isolated thunderstorms will stream across the Virgin Islands and portions of eastern Puerto Rico. Then, in the afternoon, stronger activity is expected to develop for the interior, moving into portions of the south-central, west and southwest Puerto Rico. By Tuesday, if a low pressure develops in the lower levels, the steering winds will weaken significantly. As a result, showers will move slow from the Atlantic Ocean into portions of the east and north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. At this time, soils continue to be saturated along the east and south of Puerto Rico, but a break in recent rainfalls yesterday and today will allow for the soil to dry a little. Streams are mostly running near normal or high across the entire region. Taking all these factors into consideration, the likelihood of urban and small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding, landslides and rapid river rises is increasing. While it is too early to determine how much rainfall will fall, the most likely scenario is for 1 to 3" each day, and very isolated higher amounts. So far, the days with the highest potential for flooding are Monday and Tuesday, but above normal moisture will persist through late in the workweek. At this time, confidence in the forecast is medium, since small changes in timing of arrival and position of the feature could affect the total precipitation received and the areas most affected. Usually, by mid-April, the Early Wet Season unfold in the northeast Caribbean Islands. However, this year, the dry season never arrived. In fact, the Last 60 Days Percent of Normal from the National Water Prediction Service show 300 to 500% above normal precipitation for southern Puerto Rico, from Salinas to Lajas. Areas in the interior and north were also wetter than what is expected for February and March, with nearly 100 to 200% above normal. Please, stay tuned for updates in the forecast this weekend. This product will be updated as necessary to reflect updates in the forecast. Additional information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion (AFDSJU).
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