An atmospheric river with multiple surges of moisture have moved into the panhandle and is possible to last into Sunday evening. Precipitation has mostly transitioned to rain around Icy Strait and Juneau, and is still expected to transition for the northern inner channels Friday evening into overnight Friday. Snow levels have begun to rapidly increase to 2500 ft around the Icy Strait and Juneau area, with snow levels exceeding 4000 ft in the southern half of the panhandle. A brief, distinct lull in heavy rainfall is now expected overnight tonight into Saturday morning for the southern half of the panhandle, before another surge of moderate to heavy rain. Total additional rainfall amounts from late Thursday night through Saturday night (roughly 48 hours) may range around 4.0 to 5.5 inches extreme southern panhandle, including Ketchikan and Metlakatla, 2.0-3.0 inches for the central inner channels including Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake, 1.0 to 2.0 inches for the Icy Strait corridor, 2.0 to 3.5 for the Juneau area, and 1.0 to 1.5 inches for the far northern inner channels near sea level.
Furthermore, any snowfall accumulations on areas cleared of the deep snow pack, such as sidewalks or roadways, may cause additional runoff from melting snow. Currently expecting the snowpack to absorb most rainfall from this weekend system and produce minimal runoff in the northern half of the panhandle with a deep sea level snowpack. Therefore, snow, ice, or other debris could potentially blocking storm drains and allow for ponding of rain and snowmelt in areas that they normally would not collect, such as roadways or walkways.
Another surge of moisture is looking increasingly likely for the southern half of the panhandle overnight Saturday and continuing through Sunday, and therefore, the flood watch was extended. There is growing confidence that very strong rain rates during the morning hours for the Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of Wales Island, with around a 40-60% chance for 3 hour rates exceeding 0.4 inches. This surge in precipitation may coincide with another surge of wind gusts, with sea level gusts possibly reaching as high as 50 mph Sunday evening. The southern panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0 additional inches, the central inner channels could receive 1.0 to 2.0 additional inches, the Icy Strait corridor could receive 0.75 to 1.5 additional inches, and the Juneau area could receive 1.5 to 2.5 additional inches. Stay tuned for more information.
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WHAT: Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible.
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WHERE: The following areas, Prince of Wales, Eastern Gulf Coast, Southern Inner Channels and Central Inner Channels. This includes the cities of Sitka, Petersburg, Kake, Port Alexander, Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, Thorne Bay, Wrangell, Ketchikan, Hyder, And Metlakatla.
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WHEN: Through Monday morning.
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IMPACTS: Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, other low-lying areas and flood-prone locations. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris or snow. Increased risk of possible isolated landslides.
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ADDITIONAL DETAILS:
- Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. Around 1.0 to 1.5 inches has fallen for Petersburg and Wrangell, and around 1.0 to 1.5 inches has fallen near Sitka. Around 2.0 to 5.5 inches with possibly locally higher amounts, particularly near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, of rain is expected through Saturday night. On Sunday, 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain for the central panhandle and 1.5 to 3.0 for the extreme southern panhandle is possible on Saturday. Areas with a preexisting snowpack, both from recent accumulations as well as the deep, previous snowpack, may have additional runoff. Small streams and rivers, like Staney Creek, are beginning to respond, and current have high uncertainty for exceedence of flood stage. At this time, current forecast reflects these rivers saying within their banks, however, uncertainty in snowpack depth, temperature, and runoff potential could lead to minor flooding. Gusty winds at sea level ranging from 40 to 60 mph are likely along the southern panhandle through Friday night. This combination of weather hazards could lead to possible isolated landslides along steep slopes. Conditions for the possibility of flooding and possible isolated landslides will be maximize Friday evening and decrease by Saturday morning. Stream flows in rivers may quickly rise and may exceed flood levels.
Heaviest rain for the Sunday system is possible during the morning hours with increasing wind gusts throughout the day. Wind gusts is likely to maximize overnight Sunday into Monday. This combination of factors, along with accumulation from the expected rain for today and Saturday.
An atmospheric river with multiple surges of moisture have moved into the panhandle and is possible to last into Sunday evening. Precipitation has mostly transitioned to rain around Icy Strait and Juneau, and is still expected to transition for the northern inner channels Friday evening into overnight Friday. Snow levels have begun to rapidly increase to 2500 ft around the Icy Strait and Juneau area, with snow levels exceeding 4000 ft in the southern half of the panhandle. A brief, distinct lull in heavy rainfall is now expected overnight tonight into Saturday morning for the southern half of the panhandle, before another surge of moderate to heavy rain. Total additional rainfall amounts from late Thursday night through Saturday night (roughly 48 hours) may range around 4.0 to 5.5 inches extreme southern panhandle, including Ketchikan and Metlakatla, 2.0-3.0 inches for the central inner channels including Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake, 1.0 to 2.0 inches for the Icy Strait corridor, 2.0 to 3.5 for the Juneau area, and 1.0 to 1.5 inches for the far northern inner channels near sea level. Furthermore, any snowfall accumulations on areas cleared of the deep snow pack, such as sidewalks or roadways, may cause additional runoff from melting snow. Currently expecting the snowpack to absorb most rainfall from this weekend system and produce minimal runoff in the northern half of the panhandle with a deep sea level snowpack. Therefore, snow, ice, or other debris could potentially blocking storm drains and allow for ponding of rain and snowmelt in areas that they normally would not collect, such as roadways or walkways. Another surge of moisture is looking increasingly likely for the southern half of the panhandle overnight Saturday and continuing through Sunday, and therefore, the flood watch was extended. There is growing confidence that very strong rain rates during the morning hours for the Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of Wales Island, with around a 40-60% chance for 3 hour rates exceeding 0.4 inches. This surge in precipitation may coincide with another surge of wind gusts, with sea level gusts possibly reaching as high as 50 mph Sunday evening. The southern panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0 additional inches, the central inner channels could receive 1.0 to 2.0 additional inches, the Icy Strait corridor could receive 0.75 to 1.5 additional inches, and the Juneau area could receive 1.5 to 2.5 additional inches. Stay tuned for more information. * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be possible. * WHERE...The following areas, Prince of Wales, Eastern Gulf Coast, Southern Inner Channels and Central Inner Channels. This includes the cities of Sitka, Petersburg, Kake, Port Alexander, Craig, Klawock, Hydaburg, Coffman Cove, Thorne Bay, Wrangell, Ketchikan, Hyder, And Metlakatla. * WHEN...Through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, other low-lying areas and flood-prone locations. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris or snow. Increased risk of possible isolated landslides. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. Around 1.0 to 1.5 inches has fallen for Petersburg and Wrangell, and around 1.0 to 1.5 inches has fallen near Sitka. Around 2.0 to 5.5 inches with possibly locally higher amounts, particularly near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, of rain is expected through Saturday night. On Sunday, 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain for the central panhandle and 1.5 to 3.0 for the extreme southern panhandle is possible on Saturday. Areas with a preexisting snowpack, both from recent accumulations as well as the deep, previous snowpack, may have additional runoff. Small streams and rivers, like Staney Creek, are beginning to respond, and current have high uncertainty for exceedence of flood stage. At this time, current forecast reflects these rivers saying within their banks, however, uncertainty in snowpack depth, temperature, and runoff potential could lead to minor flooding. Gusty winds at sea level ranging from 40 to 60 mph are likely along the southern panhandle through Friday night. This combination of weather hazards could lead to possible isolated landslides along steep slopes. Conditions for the possibility of flooding and possible isolated landslides will be maximize Friday evening and decrease by Saturday morning. Stream flows in rivers may quickly rise and may exceed flood levels. Heaviest rain for the Sunday system is possible during the morning hours with increasing wind gusts throughout the day. Wind gusts is likely to maximize overnight Sunday into Monday. This combination of factors, along with accumulation from the expected rain for today and Saturday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Flooding may occur in poor drainage areas. Storm drains should be kept clear of debris as much as possible. All residents on or near mountain slopes should be prepared for possible landslides. Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
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