Invest 95W, now rated as "high" for development by JTWC, continues to consolidate to the north-northeast of Kosrae. Latest satellite imagery depicts flaring convection within the west to southwest flank of 95W, located between Kosrae and Pohnpei. Invest 95W is expected to shift west-northwest passing north of Pohnpei around Thursday night as a significant tropical cyclone, developing into a Tropical Depression by Wednesday night. The main concern for Pohnpei will be surging west winds and elevated west swell associated with Invest 95W, which looks to build over Pohnpei waters starting around Thursday and lasting into the weekend, which will lead to increasing, potentially hazardous surf along west-facing reefs not usually exposed during typical trade wind conditions. Additionally, rain bands within the outer southwest to south periphery of 95W could bring locally heavy showers over the next few days, with model ensemble guidance indicating a possibility for rainfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches through the end of the week. For more information on Invest 95W, please refer to the Significant Tropical Weather Advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW and the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN21 PGTW. Residents should keep up to date with forecasts from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, and listen for additional updates from your local Weather Service Office.
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