Since hurricane season started at the beginning of June, the third hurricane of the tropical Atlantic hurricane season is about to form and is forecasted to hit the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.
By the end of last week, the National Hurricane Center identified a tropical depression, which has now formed into a tropical storm named Ernesto. It originated several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands – the same region in which the last hurricane of the season (more information about Hurricane Beryl can be found in our article) originated. Not every tropical depression in the Atlantic will develop into a hurricane. However, Ernesto will likely become a greater storm – the third hurricane this year.
This development is well depicted in our Satellite and Wind Animation map (see below). For 2024-08-13, the high-resolution satellite images show the formation of clouds well, which so far have no defined centre eye. The Wind Animation is also helpful in detecting winds in this region.
On Wednesday (2024-08-15), the storm is expected to become stronger, clearly circling around the hurricane eye.
The storm will bring heavy rain with precipitation amounts intensifying towards 30 mm on Thursday, as the Precipitation and Clouds map shows.
The article about Hurricane Beryl explains the different categories of hurricanes, which range from Category 1 to Category 5 whereas the preliminary stages of a hurricane are the following:
- Tropical Depression: < 63 km/h
- Tropical Storm: 63 – 117 km/h
- Hurricane: > 119 km/h
That means, today and tomorrow (2024-08-13 - 14), the tropical depression will hit the islands as a tropical storm, but not yet as a hurricane. Please be aware, that different models show slightly different outcomes.
The extent of the storm is yet to say – but will concentrate on the Leeward islands, where the Tropical Cyclone Five will bring heavy rainfalls over the northern parts on Tuesday and Wednesday. Puerto Rico and the U.S., as well as the British Virgin Islands, will go under a Tropical Storm Watch as well, expecting impacts on Wednesday. The considerable threats of flash flooding and mudslides across many of the islands are active. Official weather warnings have been announced so that affected regions can prepare:
As the storm is expected to move westward, then north to northeast towards Bermuda, it is likely to intensify over the ocean later this week. Stay updated with the tools of meteoblue stay safe!
