A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 kph or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. SUPER TYPHOON ROSAL MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 845 km East of Northern Luzon (18.2, 129.7). Strength : Maximum winds of 215 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 265 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 25 kph Forecast position : Oct 21, 2026 08:00 PM - 655 km East of Basco, Batanes Oct 22, 2026 08:00 AM - 465 km East of Basco, Batanes Oct 22, 2026 08:00 PM - 340 km East of Itbayat, Batanes Oct 23, 2026 08:00 AM - 330 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes Oct 23, 2026 08:00 PM - 460 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes Oct 24, 2026 08:00 AM - 635 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 25, 2026 08:00 AM - 990 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to the TC ROSAL. Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. The highest Wind Signal that may be raised during the passage of ROSAL is Wind Signal No. 2 or 3. The Northeasterly Windflow and the periphery of ROSAL will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today (21 October): Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Aurora and Sarangani. Tomorrow (22 October): Most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental. Friday (23 October): Most of Luzon and Visayas, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS A Gale Warning is in effect over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. For more details, refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at 5:00 AM today 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 9.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes; the eastern seaboard of Babuyan Islands. Up to 8.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Cagayan. Up to 7.0m: The remaining seaboards of Batanes; the northern seaboard of Babuyan Islands; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan; the northeastern seaboard of Isabela; Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Isabela. Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboard of northern Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte. Up to 4.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon. Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.0 m: The eastern seaboards of northern Quezon and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Northern Samar. Up to 3.5: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte. Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of La Union; the northern seaboards of Dinagat Islands and Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Davao Oriental; the northwestern seaboard of Pangasinan. Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Surigao del Sur and Surigao del Norte; the southern seaboard of Davao Oriental; the remaining eastern seaboard of Quezon; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Sur, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group. Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Davao Occidental. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. Other coastal waters have forecast wave heights of less than 2.0 m. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. ROSAL will continue moving west northwestward today, then northwestward tomorrow (22 October). It will begin to turn north northwestward by Friday (23 October) before recurving northeastward by Sunday (25 October). On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone will be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon between tomorrow and Friday afternoon. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or Saturday (24 October) early morning. ROSAL is currently at its peak intensity. A weakening trend is expected to begin this afternoon and evening until it gradually weakens into a typhoon by tomorrow and into a severe tropical storm by Sunday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
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