* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Ozark - Fort Rucker * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 55 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger damage paths. - PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Local Weather Conditions and Forecasts: NWS Tallahassee - https://www.weather.gov/tallahassee - Information from the Alabama Emergency Management Agency - https://ema.alabama.gov

HLSTAE This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. **CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Coffee, Geneva, Holmes, Inland Bay, and Washington - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Baker, Calhoun, Colquitt, Dougherty, Grady, Inland Jefferson, Lee, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Terrell, Thomas, and Worth * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Coastal Bay and South Walton - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Walton, Coffee, Geneva, Holmes, Inland Bay, North Walton, and Washington - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Calhoun, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Dale, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Gadsden, Grady, Henry, Houston, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lee, Leon, Miller, Mitchell, Northern Liberty, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Southern Liberty, Terrell, Thomas, and Worth * STORM INFORMATION: - About 190 miles south-southwest of Panama City or about 200 miles southwest of Apalachicola - 27.7N 87.3W - Storm Intensity 120 mph - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 16 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ ...ALL TROPICAL WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS... ...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... At 11 AM ET, Hurricane Isaias was located over the Northern-Central Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and moving NNE at 16 mph. There are overall no significant changes in the forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Isaias is forecast to turn more northward later today and accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Hurricane Isaias is expected to maintain major hurricane status over the next several hours. Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall. Landfall is anticipated somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or Southern Alabama coast later tonight as a dangerous hurricane, nonetheless. A considerably large wind field combined with displaced convection east of the track fosters impacts are well beyond the forecast cone, particularly east of the hurricane's center. Conditions are beginning to deteriorate across the Florida Panhandle this morning then inland later this afternoon. Residents should have finalized their preparations by this time. The hurricane's fast forward speed following landfall will also lead to the wind threat extending farther inland, especially near the core of the storm. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the all of our Panhandle and Big Bend coast. Life-threatening inundation values of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground are forecast across the coastal Panhandle to Grayton Beach. From Grayton Beach to Indian Pass, 4 to 7 feet, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and 3 to 5 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River, coincident with the high tide. The greatest surge risk will be today into Saturday. Coastal saltwater flooding may linger through Saturday from persistent onshore flow. Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make much of the Tri-state area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across much of the area. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, especially within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Such values would be capable of producing isolated to scattered flash flooding. Localized considerable flash flooding is also possible where bands of heavy rain move repeatedly over the same area. Given these factors, the pre-existing Flood Watch has been expanded to cover the remaining counties of the Tri-State from this afternoon through Saturday evening. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding appears likely from the anticipated rain. Isaias will also bring a heightened tornado risk across the Florida Panhandle and FL Big Bend today into Saturday and Southeast AL & Southwest GA late tonight into Saturday. Several tornadoes, a few may be strong, are possible from outer and trailing rain bands. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the area, especially over the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, Southeast Alabama, and parts of Southwest Georgia. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across the remainder of the area. * SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the Coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * TORNADOES: Protect against a particularly dangerous tornado event having possible extensive impacts across the area, particularly across the Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, Southeast Alabama, and parts of Southwest Georgia. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Many places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of immense destruction, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roof and wall failures of sturdy buildings with some being leveled, structures upon weak foundations blown away, mobile homes obliterated, large trees twisted and snapped with forested trees uprooted, vehicles lifted off the ground and thrown, and small boats destroyed. Large and deadly projectiles can add to the toll. Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across locations east of the I-75 corridor and the Southeast Florida Big Bend. * WIND: Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle and parts of Southern Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across the Western & Southeast Florida Big Bend, and portions of Southwest Georgia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution. If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities. Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown! If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.