Under present weather conditions, At 3:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "RAMIL" was estimated based on all available data at 650 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (12.9°N, 130.0°E), with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h. The 12-hour rainfall forecast is moderate occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms. WATERCOURSES LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED : + **Masbate** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lanang, Mapayawan, Mandaon, Asid, Malbug, Guiom, Nainday, Daraga, Nauco (Aguada) and Baleno. + **Camarines Sur** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lower Kilbay Catabangan, Ragay, Tinalmud, Tambang and Lagonoy. + **Catanduanes** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Cabuyan, Bato and Pajo. + **Camarines Norte** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Labo and Daet Basud. + **Albay** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Guinale and Upper Donsol. + **Sorsogon** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lower Donsol, Ogod, Putiao, Cadacan, Banuang-Daan, Fabrica (Tugbugan) and Matnog.
People living near the mountain slopes and in the low lying areas of the above mentioned river systems and the **Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils** concerned still advised to be alert for possible flashfloods.
A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 kph or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. “RAMIL” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Depression RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at at 450 km East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (12.8, 129.5). Strength : Maximum winds of 55 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 70 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move Westward. Forecast position : Oct 18, 2025 05:00 AM - 270 km East of Juban, Sorsogon Oct 18, 2025 05:00 PM - In the vicinity of Caramoran - Panganiban Road, Caramoran Oct 19, 2025 05:00 AM - 70 km Northeast of Infanta, Quezon Oct 19, 2025 05:00 PM - 45 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan Oct 20, 2025 05:00 AM - 295 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur Oct 20, 2025 05:00 PM - 515 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 05:00 PM - 800 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 22, 2025 05:00 PM - 990 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 3 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone RAMIL. Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. The highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 2. However, the possibility of reaching severe tropical storm category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 3. Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today: Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Masbate, and Northern Samar. Coastal Inundation There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 3 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS Gale Warning may be raised over the northern seaboard of Eastern Visayas and the seaboards of Southern Luzon tonight or tomorrow (18 October) morning in anticipation of rough to very rough sea conditions. 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Isabela, northern portion of Aurora, Camarines Norte; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, rest of Aurora; the eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and northern portion of mainland Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands. Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the northern and eastern seaboard of Northern Samar. Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of La Union; the western seaboards of Pangasinan and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of the Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and rest of mainland Quezon; the southern seaboard of Sorsogon. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. RAMIL is forecast to move generally westward for the next 24 hours before turning west northwestward towards the area of Central-Southern Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of RAMIL may make landfall over Catanduanes tomorrow (18 October) afternoon. It will then turn west northwestward as it pass close or over mainland Bicol Region tomorrow evening. Afterwards, it will continue moving west northwestward and may make another landfall over Aurora or Quezon on Sunday (19 October) morning. After landfall, RAMIL may traverse the rugged terrain of Northern and Central Luzon and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon or evening and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (20 October) morning or afternoon. A southward shift of the track could lead to a different landfall area and inclusion of more localities under Wind Signal. RAMIL will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach tropical storm category within the next 12 hours. Further intensification into a severe tropical storm prior to landfall is not ruled out. As RAMIL exits the Luzon landmass, further intensification is likely as it traverses the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
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