A developing monsoon pattern and Invest 92W are producing fresh west-southwesterlies and a surge of scattered to widespread locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms, accompanied by strong to near-gale gusts. The monsoon disturbance has become Invest 92W and is located to the north-northeast of Palau and north- northwest of Yap. Model guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches through the middle of the week, and an additional 1 to 3 inches through the latter half of the week, totaling 3 to 7 inches by the weekend. If these showers develop as expected, soils will become saturated enough to pose a risk for mudslides toward the end of the week. At this time, the risk remains low. As the monsoon pattern continues to develop, winds and seas will increase, but are expected to remain below conditions hazardous to small craft. As Invest 92W embedded within the monsoon trough attempts to consolidate, it will move north and carry the bulk of the convective monsoon with it, easing the showers and winds near Palau and Yap as early as Saturday. For more information, residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.
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