The latest risk assessment update allows you to select between 2 different weather models: the ERA5 re-analysis model and the global NEMS weather model.
The risk assessments analyse different risks by exploring historical data since 1985. In the process, the following risks are evaluated:
- Cold and warm events: A threshold temperature individually defines the cold and warm event (e.g. to evaluate frost) for your particular risk analysis.
- Precipitation events and water capacity: These assessments mainly focus on precipitation by defining threshold precipitation sums or soil water amounts. This helps for instance to indicate dry or wet seasons.
- Cloud cover: This feature focuses on cloud coverage and can be defined based on your requirements. For example, in order to derive cloud-free hours.
- Wind speed and gusts: This risk assessment is calculated based on a given wind speed threshold. With this feature, event durations can also be evaluated.
Each risk assessment delivers the likelihood for the defined risk, the tolerable risk, and an analysis for each year since 1985. Since certain weather conditions are more complex to model, it is essential to consider uncertainties. This is now possible by comparing different models. If both models show the same data, the uncertainty of the data is rather low, but when you identify significant uncertainties, we recommend a more thorough analysis, e.g., by downloading the raw data to consider other variables, or by comparing individual years.
The risk assessments are part of our history+ subscription that provides access to historical weather simulation data with many different analysis tools such as year comparisons, wind roses, or the above-described risk assessments.
You can also test history+ free of charge for Basel. We are sure that these enhancements help in risk evaluations and appreciate your feedback.
