For a few days, the development of several tropical storms in the Pacific can be seen on our satellite maps, and you can also use our wind animation to track the forecasted paths of these systems.
The figure on the right shows the tropical systems currently prevailing in the Pacific (as of 2024-08-27). They are called “systems” because not all low-pressure vortices are directly categorised as hurricanes or typhoons. More information about the categorization and development of hurricanes is described in our previous article. According to this terminology, Hone and Hector are currently tropical storms, Gilma is a category 2 hurricane, and Shanshan in the Northwest Pacific is a category 2 typhoon. The terms “Hurricane” and “Typhoon” describe tropical cyclones, but they are named differently depending on the geographical area. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “Hurricane” is used, whereas it is called “typhoons” in the Northwest Pacific.
Hone reached the US state of Hawaii last Sunday (2024-08-25) as a category 1 hurricane with strong winds and heavy rainfall. As a result, there was severe flooding, particularly in the southeast of Hawaii. Hone weakened over the island, so it is no longer categorised as a hurricane but a tropical storm continuing its westerly course. The video shows Hurricane Hone moving across the archipelago.
While Hone weakened, Gilma and Hector are approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the east. According to the forecasts of various weather models, however, both systems will weaken significantly over the next few days. You can compare the different model forecasts in our weather maps by selecting the model in the lower right corner. Hurricane Gilma is expected to pass northeast of the archipelago as a tropical storm next weekend. It is still uncertain when and with what intensity tropical storm Hector will reach the archipelago, but it is predicted to weaken before it hits Hawaii.
But Typhoon Shanshan in the northwest Pacific is far more threatening. It is currently moving towards the Japanese island of Kyūshū with approximately 104 knots and a minimum pressure of 962hPa in the storm's centre, categorizing Shanshan into category 3. Various models (ICON, GFS, IFS, MSM Japan, etc.) agree that Shanshan will hit the island slightly weakly on 28 August 2024. Shanshan is currently predicted to hit the main island of Japan. For example, according to the IFS model (ECMWF), Shanshan will reach the city of Osaka as a tropical storm on Friday (2024-08-30). As explained in previous articles, these systems lose their intensity over the land masses since their primary energy source is missing - the warm ocean. The topography and drier air over land are also factors that lead to the weakening of the system. It is, therefore, to be expected that Shanshan will weaken fairly quickly as soon as the typhoon hits the land masses.
The video shows our wind map at 10 meters above ground from 2024-08-27 to 2024-09-01 (IFS Model, ECMWF). Typhoon Shanshan is visible and shows how the system will weaken over the island in the next few days.
For further details, we recommend also considering the Windy "Hurricane Tracker", which provides a good overview of the existing tropical systems.
