Under present weather conditions, At 3:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "RAMIL" was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Palauig, Zambales (15.4°N, 119.4°E), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 35 km/h. The 12-hour rainfall forecast is light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. WATERCOURSES STILL LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED : + **Masbate** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lanang, Mapayawan, Mandaon, Asid, Malbug, Guiom, Nainday, Daraga, Nauco (Aguada) and Baleno. + **Camarines Sur** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lower Kilbay Catabangan, Ragay, Tinalmud, Tambang and Lagonoy. + **Catanduanes** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Cabuyan, Bato and Pajo. + **Camarines Norte** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Labo and Daet Basud. + **Albay** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Guinale and Upper Donsol. + **Sorsogon** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Lower Donsol, Ogod, Putiao, Cadacan, Banuang-Daan, Fabrica (Tugbugan) and Matnog.
People living near the mountain slopes and in the low lying areas of the above mentioned river systems and the **Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils** concerned still advised to be alert for possible flashfloods and landslides.
A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 kph or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. “RAMIL” IS NOW OVER MANILA BAY Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Storm RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at over Manila Bay (14.6, 121.0). Strength : Maximum winds of 65 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 90 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 15 kph Forecast position : Oct 19, 2025 08:00 PM - 170 km West Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan Oct 20, 2025 08:00 AM - 495 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur Oct 20, 2025 08:00 PM - 685 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 08:00 AM - 810 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 08:00 PM - 895 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 22, 2025 08:00 AM - 895 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 23, 2025 08:00 AM - 1,175 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 10 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to RAMIL. Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today: Oriental Mindoro, Caluya Islands, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas Tomorrow (20 October): Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Coastal Inundation There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 24 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Sur, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Marinduque, and Occidental Mindoro. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today. 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Camarines Norte, and Polillo Islands; the western seaboards of Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Batangas; the northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Metro Manila; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboards of mainland Quezon; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of La Union; the remaining seaboards of Pangasinan and Quezon. Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Marinduque; the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. On the forecast track, RAMIL will continue moving west northwestward or northwestward as it traverses the Central Luzon landmass before emerging over the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan this afternoon. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (20 October) morning. During its passage over the landmass, RAMIL is expected to maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to frictional effects of mountainous terrain. Once over the West Philippine Sea, further re-intensification is highly likely, with RAMIL expected to reach severe tropical storm category while outside the PAR Region.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 kph or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. “RAMIL” IS NOW OVER MANILA BAY Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Storm RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at over Manila Bay (14.6, 120.9). Strength : Maximum winds of 65 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 90 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 15 kph Forecast position : Oct 19, 2025 08:00 PM - 170 km West Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan Oct 20, 2025 08:00 AM - 495 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur Oct 20, 2025 08:00 PM - 685 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 08:00 AM - 810 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 08:00 PM - 895 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 22, 2025 08:00 AM - 895 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 23, 2025 08:00 AM - 1,175 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 24, 2025 08:00 AM - HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 10 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to RAMIL. Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today: Oriental Mindoro, Caluya Islands, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas Tomorrow (20 October): Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Coastal Inundation There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 24 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Sur, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Marinduque, and Occidental Mindoro. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today. 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Camarines Norte, and Polillo Islands; the western seaboards of Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Batangas; the northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Metro Manila; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboards of mainland Quezon; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of La Union; the remaining seaboards of Pangasinan and Quezon. Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Marinduque; the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. On the forecast track, RAMIL will continue moving west northwestward or northwestward as it traverses the Central Luzon landmass before emerging over the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan this afternoon. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (20 October) morning. During its passage over the landmass, RAMIL is expected to maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to frictional effects of mountainous terrain. Once over the West Philippine Sea, further re-intensification is highly likely, with RAMIL expected to reach severe tropical storm category while outside the PAR Region.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
From 18/10/2025 to 18/10/2025, a Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 130 km/h) FENGSHEN-25 was active in NWPacific. The cyclone affects these countries: Philippines, Taiwan, China, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand (vulnerability High). Estimated population affected by category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (196.601 million in tropical storm).
Предупрежденията за тежки метеорологични условия се предоставят на meteoblue от повече от 80 официални агенции в цял свят. meteoblue не носи никаква отговорност по отношение на действителното съдържание или естество на предупрежденията. Проблемите могат да бъдат докладвани чрез нашия Формуляр за обратна връзка и ще бъдат предадени на съответните инстанции.
