Under present weather conditions, At 3:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "RAMIL" was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Quezon, Quezon (14.1°N, 122.1°E), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h. The 12-hour rainfall forecast is light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. WATERCOURSES STILL LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED : + **Isabela** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Dikatayan, Divilacan and Palanan-Pinacanauan. + **Quirino** - All rivers and its tributaries + **Nueva Vizcaya** - All rivers and its tributaries + **Cagayan** - Rivers and its tributaries particularly Linao, Lower Abulug, Lower Pamplona, Cabicungan, Aunugay, Baua, Palawig and Taboan.
People living near the mountain slopes and in the low lying areas of the above mentioned river systems and the **Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils** concerned advised to be alert for possible flashfloods and landslides.
A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 kph or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. RAMIL MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER MAINLAND BICOL WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Storm RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at in the vicinity of Malinao, Albay (13.4, 123.6). Strength : Maximum winds of 65 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 110 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 20 kph Forecast position : Oct 19, 2025 05:00 AM - Over the coastal waters of Burdeos, Quezon Oct 19, 2025 05:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Bolinao, Pangasinan Oct 20, 2025 05:00 AM - 325 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur Oct 20, 2025 05:00 PM - 480 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 05:00 AM - 610 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 21, 2025 05:00 PM - 690 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 22, 2025 05:00 PM - 860 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) Oct 23, 2025 05:00 PM - 1,150 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 7 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to RAMIL. Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. Although the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal 2, the worst case scenario remains Wind Signal No. 3 due to the possibility of reaching severe tropical storm category before landfall. Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today: Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Caluya Islands, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran Tomorrow (19 October): Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Coastal Inundation There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 6 issued at 2:00 PM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at 5:00 PM today. 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 5.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes. Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the seaboard of the northern portion of Aurora. Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of mainland Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Northern Samar. Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of La Union; the western seaboard of Pangasinan; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar and the rest of Quezon. Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Marinduque; the eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands; the western seaboard of Northern Samar; remaining seaboards of Bicol Region and Quezon. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. On the forecast track, RAMIL then will continue moving west northwestward over the landmass or coastal waters of Bicol Region between this afternoon and tomorrow (19 October) early morning. Afterwards, it will pass close or over Polillo Islands tomorrow morning, then make a final landfall in the vicinity of Aurora tomorrow (19 October) morning or afternoon. The possibility of landfall over northern Quezon or southern Isabela instead of Aurora is also not ruled out based on the forecast confidence cone. After making landfall in Aurora, RAMIL will traverse the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union tomorrow evening. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday (20 October) morning. Due to its proximity to the sea and the absence of large mountain ranges in Bicol Region, a re-intensification scenario before the final landfall in Aurora within the next 24 hours is likely. During its passage over Northern Luzon, RAMIL may maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to frictional effects of the mountainous landmass. Once over the West Philippine Sea, further re-intensification is highly likely.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
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Предупрежденията за тежки метеорологични условия се предоставят на meteoblue от повече от 80 официални агенции в цял свят. meteoblue не носи никаква отговорност по отношение на действителното съдържание или естество на предупрежденията. Проблемите могат да бъдат докладвани чрез нашия Формуляр за обратна връзка и ще бъдат предадени на съответните инстанции.
