After 2 years of development, we have significantly improved the quality of our local temperature forecasts: More than 80% of hourly forecasts will now have less than 2°C error (i.e. deviation from the measurement), on average. Here is an example from 10.08.2012 in Europe, with more than 3000 observations per hour for different places:Deviation level of New > Previous forecast <2°C = 81% > 63% (16% increase in quality) <3°C = 93% > 79% (14% increase in quality)
Long-term validation with statistics shows that the new temperature forecasts can achieve an error smaller than 1.7°K (absolute °C) in 70% of the cases, for any given hour (not just daily minimum and maximum!).As always in forecasting, there are still good days and bad days, or places where we just don't get it right every time, but their number has significantly decreased. For places with larger deviations, you can use our me-T?-u messages to report the right values.These temperature forecasts are now online worldwide. The quality is achieved with multi-model downscaling. The same quality is displayed on the meteoblue website through our p?int forecast, available through our p?int products and as Archive data starting 01.Aug.2012, for special cases also before.
