The climate prediction diagram shows the development of air temperature, precipitation and standardised climate indices for different emission scenarios used in the IPCC report until the end of the century.
Four different time periods (Reference period (1979 - 2019), 2020 - 2049, 2045 - 2074 and 2070 - 2099) are shown in the diagram for four different emission scenarios
(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Yearly and monthly time aggregations can be chosen in the interface.
The diagram consists of several different boxplots, which represent the possible range of the values of each parameter. In this diagram the interannual variability is represented by the spread of the boxplots.
A boxplot is a standardised way of displaying the distribution of data based on five standardised numbers (minimum, first quartile, median, third quartile and maximum)
The median (50th percentile) is represented by the black horizontal line within each box.
The first (25th percentile) and third (75th percentile) quartile is represented by the box itself.
The minimum (0th percentile) and maximum (100th percentile) represent the lowest and highest data point excluding outliers and are shown as the whiskers above and below the box.
Outliers are displayed separately as open circles.
How should the diagrams be interpreted?
The number of tropical nights in Basel for the RCP8.5 scenario (worst case scenario) for the time period 2070 - 2099 is on average 35 per year (median value).
Therefore, the probability to reach 35 and more tropical nights per year is 50% for the specific scenario and time period.
The probability to reach 41 tropical nights per year in Basel for the time period 2070 - 2099 is 25%, as the third quartile (upper end of the box) has a value of 41.
The minimum value of the box plot is 13, which means that the probability to have less than 13 tropical nights per year is almost zero.